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Old 05-08-2008, 12:21 AM
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White Magic White Magic is offline
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Folks, there is no evil conspiracy by the oil companies to bleed us all dry. Prices are sky-high for two reasons: Demand, and our weak dollar. The oil companies are all pumping oil out of the ground as fast as they can. The bottleneck is refinery capacity, which hasn't increased in decades because no one wants a refinery built anywhere near them.

If you think gas prices are crazy and that we're all getting boned, buy your favorite oil company and join in on the fun. It's an easy fix. You won't feel so bad about crazy gas prices.

I personally would like to see an increase in gas taxes. Sounds crazy at first, and there would be some temporary pain, but it would incentivize people to start thinking very hard about their fuel consumption. Habits would change. Demand would decrease. We might even get some really innovative alternative fuel ideas out of it. (I would offset an increased gas tax with a reduction to the payroll tax, so that it would end up being a wash. Incentivize work, disincentivize fuel consumption.)

As for Cramer, etal, the quality of the investment advice you find in the media is horrible for the most part. You never get all the info you need to make a sound decision.

Here's a paper that was written by some people at The University of Michigan.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lupia...ch_25_2008.pdf

The interesting part (as I understand it): 2001 - 2006 was one of the great Bull markets in recent history. At the beginning of this big run up you are given two options, you can buy shares of the DJIA, which you will put under your bed, or you can use the same amount of money to buy Canadian dollars, which you will also put under your bed. One or the other. Guess which one ends up being a better investment?

Canadian dollars are not a currency that many people are interested in, but they come out on top in this scenario due to the huge decline of the USD. The lesson (I guess) is that when you follow the market in the media, they report how many points the stock market goes up or down in a given day, but they never give it to you in a context that is meaningful.

So anyway, I think financial news is terrible. I don't buy anything I am not personally, intimately familar with. If that means tearing the financials apart myself, so be it. After all, who would want to own a company you don't truly understand? You wouldn't buy a Subway franchise if you weren't intimately familiar with the inner workings of a fastfood restaurant would you? I say, If you own a fractional interest in a company and you don't know enough about it that you could run it yourself, you are just a speculator. This of course is a lot of work, so if you don't have the time or inclination to do the research just buy mutual funds. Or hire someone really capable and trustworthy to do it for you.

But what do I know? Not much.

I'm done ranting. Thanks for coming out, god bless you, goodnight.
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