Are you a betting man?

[osu99jp]

Villanova is a 3 or 3.5 point favorite tonight, depending on your sportsbook.

TAKE NOVA.

I hate saying that, but jeez. This line is too good to be true. I would never advocate wagering what you can't afford to lose, but I am tempted to wager exactly what I CAN afford to lose tonight.

[Woodmania]

Originally Posted by osu99jp

Villanova is a 3 or 3.5 point favorite tonight, depending on your sportsbook.

TAKE NOVA.

I hate saying that, but jeez. This line is too good to be true. I would never advocate wagering what you can't afford to lose, but I am tempted to wager exactly what I CAN afford to lose tonight.

And if you did, you would have BARELY won. I think that's why I never bet. Vegas knows far more about what is going to happen than I.

[Franny]

Nice late surge by the Bearcats, but alas, Cronin is destined for failure.

I'll admit I was wrong about thinking this team had a shot to be a top 64, but we still have the conference tournament to go.

[osu99jp]

That really was a closer game than I expected. UC kept paring that lead down, but never totally catching up...then Nova would answer with a run of their own. Once they went up 16 late, I figured that bet was easy money. Kudos to UC for fighting back.

PS: The final gametime spread on my sportsbook was Villanova by 4, with the over/under set at 150.

Villanova 77, UC 73 - you do the math

[boogie]

Never, ever, EVER under estimate the Books. I've been betting college football for a long time and I am still freaking amazed at how good those guys are. I have lost track of how many times I think I have a game in my wallet, only to watch in horror as something unthinkable happens. It boggles my mind how close they get the spread. I swear, sometimes I think a coin-flip would serve me better than all my "research".

[i like fried chicken]

My gambling days are long behind me. I had most of my success in college football. NFL was always tough. I only bet 1 season of basketball. Nothing like laying 8-10 points, your team is up 16-18 but you lose because of garbage/sub time.

[Sloopy32]

Originally Posted by Woodmania

Vegas knows far more about what is going to happen than I.

Originally Posted by boogie

Never, ever, EVER under estimate the Books. I've been betting college football for a long time and I am still freaking amazed at how good those guys are. ... I swear, sometimes I think a coin-flip would serve me better than all my "research".

Remember guys, the "Vegas" that knows so much is not some experts behind the sports books. Those experts only need to be good enough to set the opening line at something close. And they are good at that, don't get me wrong. But what ultimately controls the line is the collective money wagered on it. The line moves to whatever it takes to bring an equal amount of money wagered on both sides, so that the sports book will profit from the juice (-110 most of the time) no matter which side wins.

So in picking your bets you are not trying to be smarter than some Vegas expert working for a sports book. You are trying to be smarter than the collective betting public, or more accurately, than the people who are willing to wager their money, with those people wagering more money having more impact on the line.
If you can predict the outcome more accurately than the rest of the betting public, then you can be successful. Sport book guys who set the opening line are not trying to predict what is actually most likely to happen, rather they are predicting what most bettors will think is most likely to happen!

Not that being more accurate than the betting public is easy to do on a regular basis, it clearly is not. It stands to reason that the more money a person wagers, the more expertise he probably has as to the probability of a certain outcome. So the lines do end up being awfully good predictors in the long run.

Assuming the money lines on your spreads are -110, you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even. Any better than that and you're making money.
Tossing a coin, in the long run, will of course put you at a 50% win rate.
It's amazing that 50% is losing money, 53% winning is making money, and yet it is so hard to get that extra few percent.

I'm a good example this year. In the past two months, I have made 69 NBA point spread picks. As amazing as it is, my record over that time is 34-34-1, dead nuts .500. So, that is losing money, and is no better than if I had just tossed a coin!

It is a toss up on whether it is better to bet college or pro sports. The advantage I like in pro sports is that you can actually follow all the teams and most of the starting players (especially in basketball), so you have a better handle on what's going on. The disadvantage is really from the same concept, since the "betting public" you are trying to beat also knows better what is going on.
I guess it stands to reason that you should have more advantage in college if you can follow closely enough the teams that are playing the game you're betting, since overall the betting public should know less about them than they would in a typical pro game.

[osu99jp]

I've found college sports far easier to pick than professional sports. I'm not sure if I'm stating the obvious or not, that's just the way I see it. I am not a huge risk-taker anymore though, so when I do make bets they tend to be low-risk, low-reward type deals. I like the "teaser" bets in college and pro football, where you can adjust the spread of each game for a price. You aren't given the greatest odds, but I usually win when I do a 3-team teaser and that's all I really care about in the end. I am not a high roller by any means, but I do enjoy a little action.