BCS Bowl computer predictions

[Bengal-Bot]

The Big Lead just posted a blog about the Cincinnati Bengals:

Who else is loving the anti-BCS sentiment that is in the air? Texas, which received help from those “Cheaters!” disguised in zebra outfits Saturday night, is an unworthy opponent to face Alabama in the Championship game. TCU and Cincinnati are just as deserving - hell, Boise State, also unbeaten, has done something the Longhorns, Horned [...]

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[Sloopy32]

I think the BCS did a good job with their bowl matchups. This year we happen to have 1 vs 2, 3 vs 5, 4 vs 6, 7 vs 8, and 9 vs 10. That's pretty clean. I would like to have had Texas Christian and Boise State go up against BCS conference teams though. I would love the matchups of Cincinnati and Texas Christian in the Fiesta Bowl and Florida and Boise State in the Sugar Bowl. Oh well, whatever.

Here's a look at what two of the BCS' computer analysts predict for this year's BCS bowls. I believe that some members of this forum are fans of Jeff Sagarin. I like him too, but my favorite computer sports analyst is Ken Massey, primarily because the results of his analysis give more details than Sagarin's.

Here are the predictions using each man's system/results. Massey predicts the score, while Sagarin's system only predicts the margin.

Alabama vs Texas
Massey: Alabama 26, Texas 20
Sagarin: Alabama by 3

Cincinnati vs Florida
M: Florida 33, Cincinnati 24
S: Florida by 8

Texas Christian vs Boise State
M: Texas Christian 35, Boise State 28
S: Texas Christian by 4

Ohio State vs Oregon
M: Oregon 27, Ohio State 25
S: Oregon by 1

Iowa vs Georgia Tech
M: Georgia Tech 28, Iowa 21
S: Georgia Tech by 5

Massey also gives a precent chance for victory for each team, but I don't know how to calculate that on my own. If we wait until a week before the games, he will have that posted on his website.
By the time the games are actually played, the results of other games played between now and then will be factored in, and the predictions might be slightly different.

The two systems agree on the result for all five games. They also both agree that Cincinnati is the biggest "underdog" of the ten teams.
What do you think of these predictions; agree or disagree??
I think Vegas will agree with them on all games, too, although I haven't seen any early lines.

I would assume that Ricky Stanzi is still not going to start at quarterback for Iowa. Of course the computer systems don't take that into account, so I have to think Iowa is really a bigger underdog than they predict.

[ruredyjl]

Texas can't beat Alabama. I don't know if they could beat TCU, Boise, or UC.
If Florida beats UC by more that 14 points what does that prove for Florida?
TCU playing Boise is meaningless! I believe TCU will destroy Boise but so what?!?!
Man does there need to be a playoff system!
Go UC, Go Bucks, Go Penn State, Go Iowa!

[bearcat428]

Originally Posted by Sloopy32

I think Vegas will agree with them on all games, too, although I haven't seen any early lines.

early line is florida by 10.5 for the sugar.

[Sloopy32]

And I bet that 10.5 is the largest early line of any of the BCS bowls, right?

Certinaly Florida's defense is tougher than any the Bearcats have faced so far this year. But looking at the last games for each team, I would take Cincinnati +10.5 if I was going to lay my money down.
We'll have to see which way that line moves by the time the game is played. If more bettors agree with me, it will come down. Or, if more bettors are caught up in the glory of Tebow's last college game, it may go up.

[bearcat428]

haven't seen other lines yet. i'm anxious to see where the sugar bowl line goes.

[Sloopy32]

Yeah, my thoughts exactly on the disappointment on Texas Christian playing Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. I think the most interesting and meaningful matchups would have been accompished by flopping Cincinnati and Texas Christian like this.

Sugar Bowl - Florida and Texas Christian
Fiesta Bowl - Cincinnati and Boise State

Or, you could also flop TCU and BSU. Either way, better games and more meaningful results than the way it is actually set up.
I do realize that there is the bowl pecking order of selection, regional considerations, and all that.
I guess the good news is that, if Cincinnati actually beats Florida, think what that will do for their rep and ranking in the final polls!

By the way, isn't it a shame that Iowa got the BCS ranking to get the bid over Penn State? Penn State would probably give Georgia Tech a better game than Iowa with a freshman quarterback.

[Franny]

Originally Posted by Sloopy32

Certinaly Florida's defense is tougher than any the Bearcats have faced so far this year. But looking at the last games for each team, I would take Cincinnati +10.5 if I was going to lay my money down.
We'll have to see which way that line moves by the time the game is played. If more bettors agree with me, it will come down. Or, if more bettors are caught up in the glory of Tebow's last college game, it may go up.

I have a tough time seeing Florida getting motivated for this game. I picture Tebow out there screaming at everyone. "It's my last game Goddamnits - This is my legacy! Grah! PTL!"

I won't be surprised if UC was curb stomped but I also wouldn't surprised if they won by a couple TDs. Looking forward to all the games on Jan 1.

[osu99jp]

Originally Posted by Franny

I have a tough time seeing Florida getting motivated for this game. I picture Tebow out there screaming at everyone. "It's my last game Goddamnits - This is my legacy! Grah! PTL!"

I won't be surprised if UC was curb stomped but I also wouldn't surprised if they won by a couple TDs. Looking forward to all the games on Jan 1.

I am withholding my pick for now. I have similar concerns about Florida, if the team's mindset is anything like that of some of their fans on the Interwebz. Many of them have expressed extreme apathy at the outcome of the Sugar Bowl game. I would imagine Saint Timothy would not allow the team to come out flat, though.

At the same time, I think the BK situation needs to play out.

[Administrator]

Originally Posted by Sloopy32

By the way, isn't it a shame that Iowa got the BCS ranking to get the bid over Penn State? Penn State would probably give Georgia Tech a better game than Iowa with a freshman quarterback.

Penn State would probably give GT a better game, but Iowa beat Penn State @ Happy Valley and that Freshman QB looked decent vs tOSU's Silver Bullets. I think Stanzi is kind of a turd.

[Sloopy32]

Iowa does deserve it over Penn State since they have the head-to-head win, although things don't always work out that cleanly.

You are right about that freshman quarterback for Iowa playing well against the Buckeyes. He looked terrible vs Northwestern but looked like a different player in the defacto Big Ten Championship game. I was at that game, and I don't know how many times I yelled to the people around me: "Damn, this quarterback sure looks a hell of a lot better than he did last week!"
Then he looked like a freshman again against Minnesota, but the defense bailed him out.

But! I just heard that Ricky Stanzi is now expected to start the Orange Bowl. I do not think he is a turd. I do think and hope that he will help the offense be more consistent, and we already know how good Iowa's defense is. So, I am now officially excited about the Hawkeyes beating that rambling yellow jacket thing from Georgia!

No offense to V3nom, but I like Iowa better than Penn State anyway...

[V3n0M]

I can't defend Penn State against Iowa - they've been our kryptonite, and in the games that mattered most.

I'm rooting for Big 10 in all their games (even Iowa!) and I think Penn State and LSU is a good match. New Years Day is going to be a blast, a marathon of rum and football all day long. I can't wait!!

[V3n0M]

Originally Posted by V3n0M

I can't defend Penn State against Iowa

YEAH!! Neither could they!!! LOL