Creeping up to $4 Gas

[White Magic]

Franny, when you started down the path with your telecommunications prediction it was because you saw it saving employers on fuel costs. Then it morphed into a productivity/lease space argument. I'd still like to know where the fuel savings for employers comes from.

[Franny]

Originally Posted by White Magic

Franny, when you started down the path with your telecommunications prediction it was because you saw it saving employers on fuel costs. Then it morphed into a productivity/lease space argument. I'd still like to know where the fuel savings for employers comes from.

No, it was in response to your random bashing about the suburbs and how high gas prices will create thriving downtowns...

You've misquoted a lot of people in this thread!

Also - It's Telecommuting or Teleworking... not telecommunications. and of course not everyone will work this way. If you have an employee that needs to be "supervised" or doesn't have the discipline to stay focused outside of a cubicle, then yes - stick them in the cube and make them drive 25 minutes to work each day. If you have an employee that is evaluated on a true hard deliverable/metric - say sales numbers, # of forms processed, whatever - there is no reason why you can't replicate their work environment at a remote location and track their productivity.

And no, the technology has not been around that long. It was there, but bleeding edge. Corporate IT departments are just now getting a handle on the security issues involved with VPN and VoIP to make this work. Even 3-4 years ago most corporate applications were desktop based, which do not perform well - even with a broadband connection. As more applications become Web/Web 2.0 powered, the performance is there to make this work.

Also - I know 3 P&G people who work from home. Maybe you should send a letter via US Postal Service to your boy A.G. telling him how much of a bum he is for letting this happen. Bonus Blast: And I don't pay Tax on items I buy through Amazon. Why do you DESPISE modern living so much? I guess keep driving your horse and buggy back and forth to the General Store White Magic!

[White Magic]

Originally Posted by Franny

I guess keep driving your horse and buggy back and forth to the General Store White Magic!

That's some green livin' right there! I be savin' some gas!

[Franny]

Originally Posted by White Magic

That's some green livin' right there! I be savin' some gas!

It may be green livin, but even the Amish are feeling the pain of skyrocketing commodity costs:

Cincinnati Enquirer | Cincinnati Video: Local News | Cincinnati.Com

[White Magic]

I have read a lot of different stuff from a lot of different economists about the reason gas/oil prices are so crazy... No one has a perfect explanation. Just about all of them agree that speculation is not the problem, but beyond that it's not real clear. This is the most reasonable explanation I have seen yet.

We Can Lower Oil Prices Now - WSJ.com

In a nutshell: Oil producers have examined the data and decided that the demand for oil in the future is going to be outrageous, so they have a choice to make - They can either pump oil out of the ground now, or they can leave it in the ground and pump it out later when the demand is higher and prices will be steeper. If they pump it now, they have to get enough for it that the price + the interest it will earn = the price they can reasonably expect to get in the future. So.... future expectations are driving this mess, not current fundamentals. If that's the case an announcement that we're going to start drilling offshore or in ANWR (or something else that will increase future supply/decrease future demand) could bring down the price of oil immediately.

Sound good?

[Franny]

Originally Posted by White Magic

In a nutshell: Oil producers have examined the data and decided that the demand for oil in the future is going to be outrageous, so they have a choice to make - They can either pump oil out of the ground now, or they can leave it in the ground and pump it out later when the demand is higher and prices will be steeper. If they pump it now, they have to get enough for it that the price + the interest it will earn = the price they can reasonably expect to get in the future. So.... future expectations are driving this mess, not current fundamentals. If that's the case an announcement that we're going to start drilling offshore or in ANWR (or something else that will increase future supply/decrease future demand) could bring down the price of oil immediately.

Sound good?

Seems logical to me.

You're right about no one having an answer about the rising energy costs. Frankly, I'm about sick of reading and hearing about it. No one knows what the hell they are talking about. Watch CNBC, Bloomberg or Fox Business for a couple hours straight and your head may explode. I also hate these old, crusty dudes who keep referencing the 70's.

[bearcat428]

the dollar is worth half of what it was, and oil costs double. hmmm, i wonder why oil is double?

[Franny]

Originally Posted by bearcat428

the dollar is worth half of what it was, and oil costs double. hmmm, i wonder why oil is double?

Not quite right... The Euro has held stronger but yet countries like England are experiencing the same price increase. Gas in London is $9 (US) a gallon.

[bearcat428]

that sounds like obama talk. you have to do better than a flat comparison like that.

first taxes. us tax per gallon is 11% compared to 70%

second, increase from a year ago, which in the us is 37% compared to 15%

the us would increase more, but demand has gone down.

a better comparison is the price per barrel in dollars which has increased 98% in one year.

compare 98% to 15% franny. that's the true comparison. it's the value of the dollar, plain and simple.

[Franny]

it's the value of the dollar, plain and simple.

Aren't we just talking about the price per barrel here?

OK, then why does most everything else I buy not cost 98% higher than it cost last year? If the price is going up all for goods, it's because transportation costs are higher, because of the cost of fuel! You crazy Bearcat!

[White Magic]

Originally Posted by Franny

OK, then why does most everything else I buy not cost 98% higher than it cost last year? If the price is going up all for goods, it's because transportation costs are higher, because of the cost of fuel! You crazy Bearcat!

He's not totally wrong. The falling dollar mostly impacts the price of imported goods, and oil is mostly imported. Goods and services that can be had domestically aren't affected as much by the changing value of the dollar. Too bad most of the stuff we all use is manufactured abroad!

[Franny]

Originally Posted by White Magic

He's not totally wrong. The falling dollar mostly impacts the price of imported goods, and oil is mostly imported. Goods and services that can be had domestically aren't affected as much by the changing value of the dollar. Too bad most of the stuff we all use is manufactured abroad!

I'm not saying the weak dollar is not a contributing factor, but he seems pretty confident that it is the only reason gas is now $4.15. If you look at the fall of the dollar vs. the rise of the price of oil, it just doesn't match up. The dollar had a nice little climb back up in May & part of June and oil shot up at record numbers.

[bearcat428]

no, it's not all of the problem. but it's a large portion and doesn't get the equivalent amount of attention.

[Franny]

Originally Posted by White Magic

You'll still not supplying a lot of logic here Franny. How does my telecommuting save my employer money? I see how it saves me money, but I'm pretty sure getting me set up will cost my employer money and I'll be doing the same work.

Just some interesting info that popped up today:

In a community where complaints about commute times are as common as the sun rising, finally someone has done something about it. It's called the GeorgiaTelework Tax Credit Program. Under this law, Georgia employers are eligible for a one-time tax credit of up to $20,000 to offset design and assessment costs of creating a telecommuting program, plus annual credits of up to $1,200 per new teleworker. Eligible expenses include computers, telecommunications equipment, software and maintenance. Join representatives of the Clean Air Campaign on Wednesday morning, September 24, as they describe the benefits and application requirements for the Georgia Telework Tax Credit Program.

As people argue about sucking gas from ANW(A)R, clean coal, wind, solar, etc - they somehow forgot about good old conservation.

[White Magic]

Sounds like a good plan. I'm all in favor of tax breaks. Maybe we should all move to Georgia so our employers will have an incentive to let us work from home?