Creeping up to $4 Gas

[Franny]

Blue Ash Speedway Gal/Unleaded 7:30 AM today: $3.62
Blue Ash Speedway Gal/Unleaded 12:00 PM today: $3.80

We're almost there...

I like how the oil companies took out a full page ad in this week's Business Week to explain that record profits are vital to the economy- not because that profit should be used to find alternative sources of oil, but because the majority of Americans (anyone with a Mutual Fund and anyone with an IRA) own a piece of big oil. Killing the profits would kill the stock price which would kill everyone's retirement. Interesting self defense...

[master_of_muppets]

this is bull shit. complete bull shit.

am i, a logical man, supposed to sit here and believe that it is happenstance that the same week the second round of "stimulus" money is given out, gas shoots up to $120/barrel?

i mean, seriously. i'm a believer in capitalism, a pure-blooded conservative, but this fails the smell test. never thought i'd step foot in the oil-conspiracy camp, and i'm not totally in with them – it's just that this is amazingly obvious coincidental.

[PokerDude]

We're in this mess because everyone has put 110% belief in "futures". Now there is a job....lets over pay a suit with an MBA in god knows what a whole lotta fucking money to sit in a think tank and analyze what they THINK something may cost in 6 months down the road. Now there is a job....

Hmm...i think cat shit is going to sell for $20/pound next april....hence...pet food producers ramp up the cost of cat food so they can reap the benefits of when Biff and Bev over feed Fluffy so they can get rich quick by selling Fluffy fecies for $20/pound and pay off their over mortaged $2m mansion they can't afford anyway.

[millslite]

Originally Posted by PokerDude

Hmm...i think cat shit is going to sell for $20/pound next april....hence...pet food producers ramp up the cost of cat food so they can reap the benefits of when Biff and Bev over feed Fluffy so they can get rich quick by selling Fluffy fecies for $20/pound and pay off their over mortaged $2m mansion they can't afford anyway.

I have read this paragraph 5 times and it keeps getting more entertaining!!!

[Franny]

Originally Posted by master_of_muppets

this is bull shit. complete bull shit.

am i, a logical man, supposed to sit here and believe that it is happenstance that the same week the second round of "stimulus" money is given out, gas shoots up to $120/barrel?

I've heard this theory quite a bit today. Hannity and people of his ilk keep saying, "Americans are still spending." "Consumer spending is high"... I'm not sure how it can be when the typical American family is stripped of an extra $100 or $200 a month because of heavy increases in Gas and Grocery prices.

I was @Toyota a few weeks ago... People are literally FIGHTING over Priuses.

Looks like Cramer is going to be wrong with his prediction that oil will peak at $125 a barrel in 2008. Course, he's been wrong about a lot of stuff lately: Google, Apple, RIM, Toyota.... the list goes on.

[master_of_muppets]

how does Cramer still have a job? if i were that wrong on that many things i doubt my employer would put me on such a stage.

i don't listen to political talk radio much lately. been away from it for about two months now because it just makes me angry. i'm listening to Art Bell podcasts a lot lately

not sure where this oil story is going. as for my house, we've sold a vehicle and plan trips to be most efficient. we're not struggling or anything, but we also don't trust where this oil thing is going. the next shoe to drop will be food. i'd guesstimate that food prices will shoot up a la gas by summer's end. just my gut sense.

[osu99jp]

Originally Posted by Franny

Looks like Cramer is going to be wrong with his prediction that oil will peak at $125 a barrel in 2008. Course, he's been wrong about a lot of stuff lately: Google, Apple, RIM, Toyota.... the list goes on.

Bear Stearns

[Franny]

Originally Posted by master_of_muppets

how does Cramer still have a job? if i were that wrong on that many things i doubt my employer would put me on such a stage.

I still watch his show every day but I have been very successful at investing lately by doing the opposite of what Jim Cramer says to do. I defend Cramer because CNBC has him spread too thin. He doesn't know the intricate details of the companies he recommends. he's spending too much time learning the general fundamentals of those 2,000 stocks he needs to keep in his head so he doesn't focus on the meat.

[PokerDude]

Originally Posted by Franny

I was @Toyota a few weeks ago... People are literally FIGHTING over Priuses.

If the goons fighting over a Prius...or any Hybrid...would consider what the pay back is over time.....they would see they are loser purchases in the end.

[Tedesco]

Originally Posted by master_of_muppets

how does Cramer still have a job? if i were that wrong on that many things i doubt my employer would put me on such a stage.

He's a weather man. That explains everything.

[Franny]

Originally Posted by PokerDude

If the goons fighting over a Prius...or any Hybrid...would consider what the pay back is over time.....they would see they are loser purchases in the end.

Actually, at last year's gas prices you would see an ROI after 3 years of driving a Prius. At a $4/gal mark, the ROI is available in 2 to 2 1/2. This is based on a typical 15,000 mile/month driver. If you don't want to spend 26K to 30K on a Prius, check out the Yaris. Not a hyrbid but some incredible gas mileage and the same reliability of a Camry but under 16K.

There are also the additional benefits of not having to waste time at a gas station and doing something good for the Earths. You also stick it to Big Oil and it's actually a sweet car. Civic Hybrid... not so much. I drove them both.

[White Magic]

Folks, there is no evil conspiracy by the oil companies to bleed us all dry. Prices are sky-high for two reasons: Demand, and our weak dollar. The oil companies are all pumping oil out of the ground as fast as they can. The bottleneck is refinery capacity, which hasn't increased in decades because no one wants a refinery built anywhere near them.

If you think gas prices are crazy and that we're all getting boned, buy your favorite oil company and join in on the fun. It's an easy fix. You won't feel so bad about crazy gas prices.

I personally would like to see an increase in gas taxes. Sounds crazy at first, and there would be some temporary pain, but it would incentivize people to start thinking very hard about their fuel consumption. Habits would change. Demand would decrease. We might even get some really innovative alternative fuel ideas out of it. (I would offset an increased gas tax with a reduction to the payroll tax, so that it would end up being a wash. Incentivize work, disincentivize fuel consumption.)

As for Cramer, etal, the quality of the investment advice you find in the media is horrible for the most part. You never get all the info you need to make a sound decision.

Here's a paper that was written by some people at The University of Michigan.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lupia...ch_25_2008.pdf

The interesting part (as I understand it): 2001 - 2006 was one of the great Bull markets in recent history. At the beginning of this big run up you are given two options, you can buy shares of the DJIA, which you will put under your bed, or you can use the same amount of money to buy Canadian dollars, which you will also put under your bed. One or the other. Guess which one ends up being a better investment?

Canadian dollars are not a currency that many people are interested in, but they come out on top in this scenario due to the huge decline of the USD. The lesson (I guess) is that when you follow the market in the media, they report how many points the stock market goes up or down in a given day, but they never give it to you in a context that is meaningful.

So anyway, I think financial news is terrible. I don't buy anything I am not personally, intimately familar with. If that means tearing the financials apart myself, so be it. After all, who would want to own a company you don't truly understand? You wouldn't buy a Subway franchise if you weren't intimately familiar with the inner workings of a fastfood restaurant would you? I say, If you own a fractional interest in a company and you don't know enough about it that you could run it yourself, you are just a speculator. This of course is a lot of work, so if you don't have the time or inclination to do the research just buy mutual funds. Or hire someone really capable and trustworthy to do it for you.

But what do I know? Not much.

I'm done ranting. Thanks for coming out, god bless you, goodnight.

[osu99jp]

Demand

Mmm hmm. We keep buying it, price keeps going up. We stop buying it, price starts going down until we start buying it again.

[Franny]

Originally Posted by White Magic

Demand

I think most Americans understand this, but they are having trouble understanding why these prices increased so dramatically - pretty much overnight. Did the Chinese wake up one morning and all decide to go out and get driver's licenses?

[master_of_muppets]

@ white magic
i don't disagree with what you're saying, but as i said before, the price increases - dramatically so - are just too well-timed with the "stimulus" checks coming. it doesn't pass the smell test.

i won't speculate on whom coordinated this. bush doesn't seem bright enough to do it. the dems hate oil as much as they do christians. i don't know. but i do know that when i get my money on friday, and head to IL next week, i'll be spending about half on gasoline. that sucks.